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Carbon Pricing
Carbon Pricing
Overview
Carbon Credits exist in various shapes, under various national or international arrangements. They are often sold on a forward basis before they are generated, or even at very early stages of conception or implementation.

By their very nature, forward carbon credits cannot be priced by direct reference to an established market spot price or market forward price unless the transaction volume is guaranteed and other conditions are met.

The forward price is dictated by a combination of delivery risk and other exogenous investment related risks. Delivery risk is mainly composed of registration risk (until registration takes place) and of other technical, commercial or financial risks (prior to and after registration). Crucially, the impact of predictability, volatility and stability of a project’s CER yield prospects needs also to be carefully analyzed. Other exogenous risks include the local investment climate, counterparty strength, legal and contractual risk, as well as post Kyoto eligibility and project specific regulatory risk.